• 
• 
  • What is AMBAG
  • Ambag Board of Directors
  • What is RAPS
  • RAPS, Inc. Board of Directors
  • Ambag Staff
  • Budget/Finance/OWP
• 
  • Member Services
  • Consultant Services
  • Contract Services
    • ALUC
    • Pajaro
    • Other Projects
• 
  • Agendas
  • Meeting Schedule
  • Minutes & Audio Files
• 
  • CCJDC
  • Commute Alternatives
  • Energy Watch
  • Metropolitan Transportation Planning
  • Blueprint
  • Special Projects
• 
  • Clearinghouse
  • Directory
  • Short Term Economic Outlook
  • Census
  • Forecast
• 
• 
• 

What is the Regional Forecast?

The forecast is used to support AMBAG’s Travel Demand Model among other official regional planning purposes. As such, the forecast is developed using professionally accepted forecasting methodologies. Use of the forecast by local land-use planning agencies is elective and represents the most likely trend in population, housing units and employment. As the forecast is periodically updated, changes in these factors and the trends they represent will be incorporated into future updates of the forecast.

How is the forecast developed?

Developing population, housing and employment forecast estimates for the Monterey Bay region consists of two distinct stages. The first stage is the identification of county-level forecast numbers through the use of widely accepted forecasting methodologies. The second stage is the disaggregation of county-level forecast numbers to Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs), using land use data gathered from jurisdictions.

Within both stages, there are three major components of the forecast: population, housing and employment. Population is developed through a cohort-component model. The number of housing units is developed as a function of projected population characteristics, while employment is generated from an input-output model customized to the Monterey Bay region.

For each major component of the forecast there are three principal steps: first, generating county level population and employment ‘control totals;’ second distributing those control totals to jurisdictions, and third, using the jurisdictional totals that have been filtered through land use analysis to disaggregate the forecast numbers to TAZs. Each step involved input from the Forecast Technical Advisory Committee as a group, and with individual members of the committee to adjust the forecast.

What is the Forecast Technical Advisory Committee role in the process?

As the Forecast Technical Advisory Committee, FTAC members provided input into each step of the forecast. Meetings with the FTAC were convened on the following dates:

• April 3, 2007
• April 26, 2007
• June 14, 2007
• July 19, 2007
• August 23, 2007
• September 27, 2007
• October 25, 2007
• December 20, 2007
• January 17, 2008

Each meeting of the FTAC focused on one or more aspects of the forecast process, often in terms of updates of recent staff activity. Also, over twenty meetings were held with on an individual basis with each jurisdiction to discuss the methodology and each jurisdiction’s forecast numbers. There was consensus from FTAC members on both the methodology and the forecast numbers.

What is the most recent AMBAG forecast?

Monterey Bay Area 2008 Regional Forecast: Population, Housing Unit and Employment Projections for Monterey, San Benito and Santa Cruz Counties to the Year 2035

If you have questions contact Anais Schenk at (831) 264-5088 or aschenk@ambag.org.